eprintid: 226 rev_number: 20 eprint_status: archive userid: 2 dir: disk0/00/00/02/26 datestamp: 2015-02-20 11:59:54 lastmod: 2020-03-24 08:43:54 status_changed: 2015-04-27 08:05:24 type: article metadata_visibility: show creators_name: Torcal, Federico creators_name: Posadas, Antonio creators_name: Serrano, Inmaculada creators_id: fede@iag.ugr.es creators_id: aposadas@ualm.es creators_id: inma@iag.ugr.es corp_creators: Instituto Andaluz de Geofı´sica y Prevencio´n de Desastres Sı´smicos, Observatorio de Cartuja. Campus Universitario de Cartuja s/n, 18071 Granada, Spain corp_creators: Departamento de Fı´sica Aplicada, Universidad de Almerı´a, L a Can˜ada de San Urbano, 04120 Almerı´a, Spain corp_creators: Instituto Andaluz de Geofı´sica y Prevencio´n de Desastres Sı´smicos, Observatorio de Cartuja. Campus Universitario de Cartuja s/n, 18071 Granada, Spain title: Simulating a seismic series using geostatistical and stochastic methods: application to the seismic series in the Alborán Sea (1997 June 24-?) ispublished: pub subjects: SS divisions: EPOS-P full_text_status: none keywords: Albora´n Sea, conditional geostatistical simulation, likelihood, seismic sequence, seismic simulation. abstract: Seismic series can be taken as examples of correlated unstationary sets of time- stochastic sequences. We investigate the possibility of estimating what is most probable to occur subsequently, if we know the events that have occurred up to a given moment. The stochastic methods can be used with data of the seismic series, irrespective of their genesis and origin. Using three stochastic methods, namely (1) simulating the likelihood of occurrence by conditional geostatistical simulation; (2) developing a stochastic analysis of the energy release by means of energy packages; and (3) calculating the occurrence time of the most probable next earthquake, we were able to simulate the occurrence of earthquakes that took place during the Albora´n Sea seismic series (1997–1998). We conclude that it is possible to set limits on the time of occurrence and energy release, understood as the magnitude of the most probable earthquake, during the development of a seismic sequence and prior to the actual occurrence of the earthquake. date: 1999-12 date_type: published publication: Geophysical Journal International volume: 139 number: 3 publisher: Oxford University Press pagerange: 726-742 id_number: doi:10.1046/j.1365-246x.1999.00973.x refereed: TRUE issn: 0956-540X official_url: http://dx.doi.org/10.1046/j.1365-246x.1999.00973.x access_IS-EPOS: unlimited owner: Publisher citation: Torcal, Federico and Posadas, Antonio and Serrano, Inmaculada (1999) Simulating a seismic series using geostatistical and stochastic methods: application to the seismic series in the Alborán Sea (1997 June 24-?). Geophysical Journal International, 139 (3). pp. 726-742. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1046/j.1365-246x.1999.00973.x