%0 Journal Article
%@ 0956-540X
%A Torcal, Federico
%A Posadas, Antonio
%A Serrano, Inmaculada
%A Instituto Andaluz de Geofı´sica y Prevencio´n de Desastres Sı´smicos, Observatorio de Cartuja. Campus Universitario de Cartuja s/n, 18071 Granada, Spain,
%A Departamento de Fı´sica Aplicada, Universidad de Almerı´a, L a Can˜ada de San Urbano, 04120 Almerı´a, Spain,
%A Instituto Andaluz de Geofı´sica y Prevencio´n de Desastres Sı´smicos, Observatorio de Cartuja. Campus Universitario de Cartuja s/n, 18071 Granada, Spain,
%D 1999
%F epos:226
%I Oxford University Press
%J Geophysical Journal International
%K Albora´n Sea, conditional geostatistical simulation, likelihood, seismic  sequence, seismic simulation.
%N 3
%P 726-742
%T Simulating a seismic series using geostatistical and stochastic methods: application to the seismic series in the Alborán Sea (1997 June 24-?)
%U https://episodesplatform.eu/eprints/226/
%V 139
%X Seismic series can be taken as examples of correlated unstationary sets of time- stochastic sequences. We investigate the possibility of estimating what is most probable to occur subsequently, if we know the events that have occurred up to a given moment. The stochastic methods can be used with data of the seismic series, irrespective of their genesis and origin. Using three stochastic methods, namely (1) simulating the likelihood of occurrence by conditional geostatistical simulation; (2) developing a stochastic analysis of the energy release by means of energy packages; and (3) calculating  the occurrence time of the most probable next earthquake, we were able to simulate the occurrence of earthquakes that took place during the Albora´n Sea seismic series  (1997–1998). We conclude that it is possible to set limits on the time of occurrence and energy release, understood as the magnitude of the most probable earthquake, during the development of a seismic sequence and prior to the actual occurrence of the earthquake.