eprintid: 224 rev_number: 17 eprint_status: archive userid: 2 dir: disk0/00/00/02/24 datestamp: 2015-02-20 13:20:30 lastmod: 2020-03-24 09:06:06 status_changed: 2015-04-27 07:27:45 type: article metadata_visibility: show creators_name: Gabrielov, Andrei creators_name: Zaliapin, Ilya creators_name: Newman, William creators_name: Keilis-Borok, Vladimir creators_id: creators_id: zal@unr.edu creators_id: creators_id: corp_creators: Departments of Mathematics, and Earth and Atmospheric Sciences, Purdue University, West Lafayette, IN 47907-1395, USA corp_creators: International Institute of Earthquake Prediction Theory and Mathematical Geophysics, Russian Academy of Sciences, Moscow, Russia corp_creators: Departments of Earth and Space Sciences, Physics and Astronomy, and Mathematics, University of California, Los Angeles, CA 90095-1567, USA corp_creators: International Institute of Earthquake Prediction Theory and Mathematical Geophysics, Russian Academy of Sciences, Moscow, Russia, and Department of Earth and Space Sciences and Institute of Geophysics and Planetary Physics, University of California, Los A title: Colliding Cascades Model for Earthquake Prediction ispublished: pub subjects: SS divisions: EPOS-P full_text_status: none keywords: aftershocks, earthquake prediction, foreshocks, seismic modelling, synthetic earthquake catalogues abstract: A wide set of premonitory seismicity patterns is reproduced on a numerical model of seismicity, and their performance in prediction of major earthquakes is evaluated. Seismicity is generated by the Colliding Cascades Model, recently developed by the same authors. The model has a hierarchical structure. It describes the interaction of two cascades: a direct cascade of loading, which is applied to the top (largest) element and transfers down the hierarchy, and inverse cascade of failures, which goes up the hierarchy, from smaller to larger elements. These cascades collide and interact: loading leads to failures, while failures release and redistribute the loading. Three basic types of earthquake precursors are considered. They reflect the following integral characteristics of seismicity: (i) the clustering of earthquakes in space and time, (ii) the intensity of earthquake sequences, and (iii) the correlation distance between earthquakes. Patterns of the first two types were established mainly by the analysis of observations and are used in the intermediate term earthquake prediction algorithms with a characteristic duration of the alarm of a few years. These patterns are validated by advance earthquake prediction. Patterns of the third type have been found very recently in the Colliding Cascades Model, though they were hypothesized previously. They have yet to be validated by observations of real seismicity. For each precursor, we explore what is called an “error diagram” showing the total duration of alarms, the rate of failures to predict, and the rate of false alarms date: 2000-05-30 date_type: published publication: Geophysical Journal International volume: 143 number: 2 publisher: Oxford University Press pagerange: 427-437 id_number: 10.1046/j.1365-246X.2000.01237.x refereed: TRUE issn: 0956-540X official_url: https://doi.org/10.1046/j.1365-246X.2000.01237.x access_IS-EPOS: unlimited owner: Publisher citation: Gabrielov, Andrei and Zaliapin, Ilya and Newman, William and Keilis-Borok, Vladimir (2000) Colliding Cascades Model for Earthquake Prediction. Geophysical Journal International, 143 (2). pp. 427-437. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1046/j.1365-246X.2000.01237.x