?url_ver=Z39.88-2004&rft_id=10.1046%2Fj.1365-246X.2000.01267.x&rft_val_fmt=info%3Aofi%2Ffmt%3Akev%3Amtx%3Ajournal&rft.au=Kagan%2C+Yan+Y.&rft.aulast=Kagan&rft.aufirst=Yan+Y.&rft.issue=2&rft.volume=143&rft.date=29+June+2000&rft.issn=0956-540X&rft.atitle=Probabilistic+forecasting+of+earthquakes&rft.title=Geophysical+Journal+International&rft.pages=438-453&rft.genre=article