eprintid: 2210 rev_number: 10 eprint_status: archive userid: 6 dir: disk0/00/00/22/10 datestamp: 2019-04-08 14:16:14 lastmod: 2021-09-03 09:21:02 status_changed: 2019-04-08 14:16:14 type: article metadata_visibility: show creators_name: Garcia-Aristizabal, Alexander creators_name: Kocot, Joanna creators_name: Russo, Raffaella creators_name: Gasparini, Paolo corp_creators: Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia Sezione di Bologna Bologna Italy, Center for the Analysis and Monitoring of Environmental Risks (AMRA)Naples Italy corp_creators: Academic Computer Centre Cyfronet AGH University of Science and TechnologyKrakówPoland corp_creators: Center for the Analysis and Monitoring of Environmental Risks (AMRA)NaplesItaly corp_creators: Center for the Analysis and Monitoring of Environmental Risks (AMRA)NaplesItaly title: A probabilistic tool for multi-hazard risk analysis using a bow-tie approach: application to environmental risk assessments for geo-resource development projects subjects: O divisions: SHEER full_text_status: none keywords: Multi-hazard risk assessment Anthropogenic hazards Bow-tie approach Monte Carlo simulations abstract: In this paper, we present a methodology and a computational tool for performing environmental risk assessments for geo-resource development projects. The main scope is to implement a quantitative model for performing highly specialised multi-hazard risk assessments in which risk pathway scenarios are structured using a bow-tie approach, which implies the integrated analysis of fault trees and event trees. Such a model needs to be defined in the interface between a natural/built/social environment and a geo-resource development activity perturbing it. The methodology presented in this paper is suitable for performing dynamic environmental risk assessments using state-of-the-art knowledge and is characterised by: (1) the bow-tie structure coupled with a wide range of probabilistic models flexible enough to consider different typologies of phenomena; (2) the Bayesian implementation for data assimilation; (3) the handling and propagation of modelling uncertainties; and (4) the possibility of integrating data derived form integrated assessment modelling. Beyond the stochastic models usually considered for reliability analyses, we discuss the integration of physical reliability models particularly relevant for considering the effects of external hazards and/or the interactions between industrial activities and the response of the environment in which such activities are performed. The performance of the proposed methodology is illustrated using a case study focused on the assessment of groundwater pollution scenarios associated with the management of flowback fluids after hydraulically fracturing a geologic formation. The results of the multi-hazard risk assessment are summarised using a risk matrix in which the quantitative assessments (likelihood and consequences) of the different risk pathway scenarios considered in the analysis can be compared. Finally, we introduce an open-access, web-based, service called MERGER, which constitutes a functional tool able to quantitatively evaluate risk scenarios using a bow-tie approach. date: 2019 date_type: published publication: Acta Geophysica volume: 67 number: 1 publisher: Versita, Warsaw and Springer-Verlag Berlin Heidelberg pagerange: 385-410 id_number: doi:10.1007/s11600-018-0201-7 issn: 1895-6572 official_url: http://doi.org/10.1007/s11600-018-0201-7 access_IS-EPOS: limited software_references: Merger owner: Publisher acknowledgments2: IS-EPOS_platform acknowledgments2: EPOS-IP_project acknowledgments2: SHEER_project promotion: TCS_AH_promotional_materials citation: Garcia-Aristizabal, Alexander and Kocot, Joanna and Russo, Raffaella and Gasparini, Paolo (2019) A probabilistic tool for multi-hazard risk analysis using a bow-tie approach: application to environmental risk assessments for geo-resource development projects. Acta Geophysica, 67 (1). pp. 385-410. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s11600-018-0201-7