eprintid: 1902 rev_number: 9 eprint_status: archive userid: 6 dir: disk0/00/00/19/02 datestamp: 2017-09-20 05:23:56 lastmod: 2017-09-20 05:23:56 status_changed: 2017-09-20 05:23:56 type: article metadata_visibility: show creators_name: Atangana, Abdon creators_name: van Tonder, Gerrit corp_creators: University of the Free State, South Africa corp_creators: University of the Free State, South Africa title: Stochastic Risk and Uncertainty Analysis for Shale Gas Extraction in the Karoo Basin of South Africa subjects: O subjects: RR subjects: SHU divisions: SHEER full_text_status: none abstract: We made use of groundwater flow and mass transport equations to investigate the crucial potential risk of water pollution from hydraulic fracturing especially in the case of the Karoo system in South Africa. This paper shows that the upward migration of fluids will depend on the apertures of the cement cracks and fractures in the rock formation. The greater the apertures, the quicker the movement of the fluid. We presented a novel sampling method, which is the combination of the Monte Carlo and the Latin hypercube sampling. The method was used for uncertainties analysis of the apertures in the groundwater and mass transport equations. The study reveals that, in the case of the Karoo, fracking will only be successful if and only if the upward methane and fracking fluid migration can be controlled, for example, by plugging the entire fracked reservoir with cement. date: 2014-02-05 date_type: published publication: Abstract and Applied Analysis volume: 2014 publisher: Hindawi Publishing Corporation id_number: 10.1155/2014/342893 issn: 1085-3375 access_IS-EPOS: limited owner: Publisher citation: Atangana, Abdon and van Tonder, Gerrit (2014) Stochastic Risk and Uncertainty Analysis for Shale Gas Extraction in the Karoo Basin of South Africa. Abstract and Applied Analysis, 2014. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1155/2014/342893