eprintid: 1815 rev_number: 13 eprint_status: archive userid: 6 dir: disk0/00/00/18/15 datestamp: 2017-01-03 13:00:53 lastmod: 2017-09-19 10:26:05 status_changed: 2017-01-03 13:00:53 type: article metadata_visibility: show creators_name: Kozlowska, Maria creators_name: Orlecka-Sikora, Beata creators_id: mkozlow@igf.edu.pl creators_id: orlecka@igf.edu.pl corp_creators: Institute of Geophysics Polish Academy of Sciences Warsaw Poland corp_creators: Institute of Geophysics Polish Academy of Sciences Warsaw Poland title: Assessment of Quantitative Aftershock Productivity Potential in Mining-Induced Seismicity subjects: MP1 subjects: RP2 subjects: RP3 subjects: RR subjects: SMU divisions: EPOS-ESI1 divisions: EPOS-ESI3 full_text_status: none keywords: Mining-induced seismicityaftershocksstatic stress transfer abstract: Strong mining-induced earthquakes exhibit various aftershock patterns. The aftershock productivity is governed by the geomechanical properties of rock in the seismogenic zone, mining-induced stress and coseismic stress changes related to the main shock’s magnitude, source geometry and focal mechanism. In order to assess the quantitative aftershock productivity potential in the mining environment we apply a forecast model based on natural seismicity properties, namely constant tectonic loading and the Gutenberg-Richter frequency-magnitude distribution. Although previous studies proved that mining-induced seismicity does not obey the simple power law, here we apply it as an approximation of seismicity distribution to resolve the number of aftershocks, not considering their magnitudes. The model used forecasts the aftershock productivity based on the background seismicity level estimated from an average seismic moment released per earthquake and static stress changes caused by a main shock. Thus it accounts only for aftershocks directly triggered by coseismic process. In this study we use data from three different mines, Mponeng (South Africa), Rudna and Bobrek (Poland), representing different geology, exploitation methods and aftershock patterns. Each studied case is treated with individual parameterization adjusted to the data specifics. We propose the modification of the original model, i.e. including the non-uniformity of M0, resulting from spatial correlation of mining-induced seismicity with exploitation. The results show that, even when simplified seismicity distribution parameters are applied, the modified model predicts the number of aftershocks for each analyzed case well and accounts for variations between these values. Such results are thus another example showing that coseismic processes of mining-induced seismicity reflect features of natural seismicity and that similar models can be applied to study the aftershock rate in both the natural and the mining environment. date: 2016-12 date_type: published publication: Pure and Applied Geophysics publisher: Springer Verlag id_number: doi:10.1007/s00024-016-1432-7 issn: 0033-4553 official_url: http://doi.org/10.1007/s00024-016-1432-7 access_IS-EPOS: limited owner: Publisher citation: Kozlowska, Maria and Orlecka-Sikora, Beata (2016) Assessment of Quantitative Aftershock Productivity Potential in Mining-Induced Seismicity. Pure and Applied Geophysics. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s00024-016-1432-7