eprintid: 1760 rev_number: 11 eprint_status: archive userid: 6 dir: disk0/00/00/17/60 datestamp: 2016-09-16 06:40:27 lastmod: 2017-02-08 12:21:32 status_changed: 2016-09-16 06:40:27 type: article metadata_visibility: show creators_name: Bourne, S. J. creators_name: Oates, Stephen creators_name: Bommer, Julian J. creators_name: Dost, Bernard creators_name: van Elk, Jan creators_name: Doornhof, Dirk creators_id: creators_id: creators_id: j.bommer@imperial.ac.uk creators_id: creators_id: creators_id: corp_creators: Shell Global Solutions International B.V.,Rijswijk, The Netherlands corp_creators: Shell Global Solutions International B.V.,Rijswijk, The Netherlands corp_creators: Civil and Environmental Engineering, Imperial College London, South Kensington Campus, United Kingdom corp_creators: Royal Netherlands Meteorological Institute (KNMI), The Netherlands corp_creators: Nederlandse Aardolie Maatschappij B.V. (NAM), The Netherlands corp_creators: Nederlandse Aardolie Maatschappij B.V. (NAM), The Netherlands title: A Monte Carlo Method for Probabilistic Hazard Assessment of Induced Seismicity due to Conventional Natural Gas Production subjects: GN subjects: MP3 subjects: SHC divisions: SHEER-4 full_text_status: none abstract: Monte Carlo approach to probabilistic seismic‐hazard analysis is developed for a case of induced seismicity associated with a compacting gas reservoir. The geomechanical foundation for the method is the work of Kostrov (1974) and McGarr (1976) linking total strain to summed seismic moment in an earthquake catalog. Our Monte Carlo method simulates future seismic hazard consistent with historical seismic and compaction datasets by sampling probability distributions for total seismic moment, event locations and magnitudes, and resulting ground motions. Ground motions are aggregated over an ensemble of simulated catalogs to give a probabilistic representation of the ground‐motion hazard. This approach is particularly well suited to the specific nature of the time‐dependent induced seismicity considered. We demonstrate the method by applying it to seismicity induced by reservoir compaction following gas production from the Groningen gas field. A new ground‐motion prediction equation (GMPE) tailored to the Groningen field has been derived by calibrating an existing GMPE with local strong‐motion data. For 2013–2023, we find a 2% chance of exceeding a peak ground acceleration of 0.57g and a 2% chance of exceeding a peak ground velocity of 22  cm/s above the area of maximum compaction. Disaggregation shows that earthquakes of Mw 4–5, at the shortest hypocentral distances of 3 km, and ground motions two standard deviations above the median make the largest contributions to this hazard. Uncertainty in the hazard is primarily due to uncertainty about the future fraction of induced strains that will be seismogenic and how ground motion and its variability will scale to larger magnitudes. date: 2015-05 date_type: published publication: Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America volume: 105 number: 3 publisher: Seismological Society of America pagerange: 1721-1738 id_number: doi:10.1785/0120140302 issn: 0037-1106 official_url: http://doi.org/10.1785/0120140302 access_IS-EPOS: limited owner: Publisher citation: Bourne, S. J. and Oates, Stephen and Bommer, Julian J. and Dost, Bernard and van Elk, Jan and Doornhof, Dirk (2015) A Monte Carlo Method for Probabilistic Hazard Assessment of Induced Seismicity due to Conventional Natural Gas Production. Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America, 105 (3). pp. 1721-1738. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1785/0120140302