eprintid: 1751
rev_number: 17
eprint_status: archive
userid: 6
dir: disk0/00/00/17/51
datestamp: 2016-09-15 13:03:38
lastmod: 2018-03-28 10:56:45
status_changed: 2016-09-15 13:03:38
type: book_section
metadata_visibility: show
creators_name: Garcia-Aristizabal, Alexander
creators_name: Almeida, Miguel
creators_name: Aubrecht, Christoph
creators_name: Polese, Maria
creators_name: Ribeiro, Luís Mário
creators_name: Viegas, Domingos
creators_name: Zuccaro, Giulio
corp_creators: Center for the Analysis and Monitoring of Environmental Risk (AMRA),Napoli, Italia
corp_creators: Centre for Forest Fire Research ADAI, Rua Pedro Hispano, Portugal
corp_creators: AIT Austrian Institute of Technology GmbH, Energy Department, Vienna, Austria,
corp_creators: Center for the Analysis and Monitoring of Environmental Risk (AMRA),Napoli, Italia
corp_creators: Centre for Forest Fire Research ADAI, Rua Pedro Hispano, Portugal
corp_creators: Centre for Forest Fire Research ADAI, Rua Pedro Hispano, Portugal
corp_creators: Center for the Analysis and Monitoring of Environmental Risk (AMRA),Napoli, Italia
title: Assessment and management of cascading effects triggering forest fires
subjects: SS
divisions: SHEER
full_text_status: none
keywords: Forest fire; earthquake, multi risk assessment; multi-hazards, cascading effects, domino effects.
abstract: A crisis situation may be due to the occurrence of a single hazard event with large impacts or due to several
hazard events occurring simultaneously. Hazard events occurring at the same time may have independent causes
or may result from a sequence of triggering effects. The outcome of a situation for which an adverse event
triggers one or more sequential events is generally called “cascading effects”.
The perception and understanding of the potential occurrence of cascading effects is of great relevance for
planning and response activities since an unexpected scenario in an emergency may worsen the situation
endangering people, goods, and may nullify a strategy that was developed accounting for a scenario in which
the triggering event was considered as a single occurrence.
This paper presents an analysis of possible scenarios of cascading effects triggered by an earthquake. A detailed
quantitative example in which an earthquake causing an electric cable failure that potentially ignites a fire is
presented. In particular, a methodology to assess the occurrence probability of the event chain
earthquakecable failurefire ignition is presented. The final results are presented as conditional probability
maps representing each transition, namely: earthquakecable failure, cable failurefire ignition, and the
assessment of the full path earthquakecable failurefire ignition.
This study is a part of a pilot application built to test the integrated crisis management system which is being
developed in the FP7 European Integrated Project – CRISMA (“Modelling crisis management for improved
action and preparedness”
date: 2014
date_type: published
publication: Advances in Forest Fire Research
publisher: Imprensa da Universidade de Coimbra
pagerange: 1073-1085
id_number: doi:10.14195/978-989-26-0884-6_117
isbn: 978-989-26-0884-6
book_title: Advances in forest fire research
editors_name: Viegas, Domingos Xavier
official_url: http://doi.org/10.14195/978-989-26-0884-6_117
access_IS-EPOS: limited
software_references: Risk_Assessment
owner: Publisher
citation:   Garcia-Aristizabal, Alexander and Almeida, Miguel and Aubrecht, Christoph and Polese, Maria and Ribeiro, Luís Mário and Viegas, Domingos and Zuccaro, Giulio  (2014) Assessment and management of cascading effects triggering forest fires.   In:  Advances in forest fire research.   Imprensa da Universidade de Coimbra, pp. 1073-1085.  ISBN 978-989-26-0884-6