%0 Book Section
%A Garcia-Aristizabal, Alexander
%A Almeida, Miguel
%A Aubrecht, Christoph
%A Polese, Maria
%A Ribeiro, Luís Mário
%A Viegas, Domingos
%A Zuccaro, Giulio
%A Center for the Analysis and Monitoring of Environmental Risk (AMRA),Napoli, Italia,
%A Centre for Forest Fire Research ADAI, Rua Pedro Hispano, Portugal,
%A AIT Austrian Institute of Technology GmbH, Energy Department, Vienna, Austria,,
%A Center for the Analysis and Monitoring of Environmental Risk (AMRA),Napoli, Italia,
%A Centre for Forest Fire Research ADAI, Rua Pedro Hispano, Portugal,
%A Centre for Forest Fire Research ADAI, Rua Pedro Hispano, Portugal,
%A Center for the Analysis and Monitoring of Environmental Risk (AMRA),Napoli, Italia,
%B Advances in forest fire research
%D 2014
%E Viegas, Domingos Xavier
%F epos:1751
%I Imprensa da Universidade de Coimbra
%K Forest fire; earthquake, multi risk assessment; multi-hazards, cascading effects, domino effects.
%P 1073-1085
%T Assessment and management of cascading effects triggering forest fires
%U https://episodesplatform.eu/eprints/1751/
%X A crisis situation may be due to the occurrence of a single hazard event with large impacts or due to several  hazard events occurring simultaneously. Hazard events occurring at the same time may have independent causes  or may result from a sequence of triggering effects. The outcome of a situation for which an adverse event  triggers one or more sequential events is generally called “cascading effects”.  The perception and understanding of the potential occurrence of cascading effects is of great relevance for  planning and response activities since an unexpected scenario in an emergency may worsen the situation  endangering people, goods, and may nullify a strategy that was developed accounting for a scenario in which  the triggering event was considered as a single occurrence.  This paper presents an analysis of possible scenarios of cascading effects triggered by an earthquake. A detailed  quantitative example in which an earthquake causing an electric cable failure that potentially ignites a fire is  presented. In particular, a methodology to assess the occurrence probability of the event chain  earthquakecable failurefire ignition is presented. The final results are presented as conditional probability  maps representing each transition, namely: earthquakecable failure, cable failurefire ignition, and the  assessment of the full path earthquakecable failurefire ignition.  This study is a part of a pilot application built to test the integrated crisis management system which is being  developed in the FP7 European Integrated Project – CRISMA (“Modelling crisis management for improved  action and preparedness”