eprintid: 1579
rev_number: 21
eprint_status: archive
userid: 4
dir: disk0/00/00/15/79
datestamp: 2015-06-30 11:57:57
lastmod: 2017-02-08 12:21:37
status_changed: 2015-09-08 10:20:06
type: article
metadata_visibility: show
creators_name: Kurzeja, Joanna
creators_name: Kornowski, Jerzy
corp_creators: Central Mining Institute, Poland
title: The basic assumptions of the quantitative version of the Comprehensive Method of Rockburst Hazard Evaluation
ispublished: pub
subjects: MP4
subjects: RP2
subjects: SMU
divisions: EPOS-ESI6
full_text_status: none
keywords: rockburst, rockburst hazard, mining seismology
abstract: This article describes the process and results of applying a new, quantitative version of what is, in the Polish mining industry, a well-known, so-called Comprehensive Method of Rockburst Hazard Evaluation (CMRHE). The CMRHE is composed of four “particular methods” (i.e. mining seismology, seismoacoustics, drilling, and the partly subjective “expert method of hazard evaluation”). Despite its popularity, CMRHE is not well defined in the mathematical sense. The subject, i.e. the rockburst hazard, is not quantitatively (or otherwise) well defined within the CMRHE Instructions or the four particular methods. In fact, the CMRHE tries to predict an undefined subject, and there is no guarantee that the particular methods attempt to identify the same (undefined) hazard. It is not clear how the four particular results should be combined to arrive at the final hazard prediction. 
The quantitative version, described here, starts by defining the hazard and all of its components as probabilities. These can then be combined according to probability rules. This analysis demonstrated that all the relevant pieces of (presumably independent) information – exactly the same as applied by CMRHE – can be expressed as probability distributions, each one dependent on its explanatory variable and each one assuming a scalar value under any concrete local conditions. Using the quantitative version of CMRHE, the product of these distributions bases the formal estimator of rockburst hazard on exactly the same information as the original CMRHE. The fact that the logarithm of this product is the sum of “points” stresses the simple connection between the original CMRHE and its quantitative version.    
An example using actual (albeit compressed) data illustrates the simplicity of this application.
date: 2013
date_type: published
publication: Mineral Resources Management
volume: 29
number: 2
publisher: Edited by IGSMiE PAN
pagerange: 193-204
refereed: TRUE
issn: 0860-0953
access_IS-EPOS: limited
owner: Publisher
citation:   Kurzeja, Joanna and Kornowski, Jerzy  (2013) The basic assumptions of the quantitative version of the Comprehensive Method of Rockburst Hazard Evaluation.  Mineral Resources Management, 29 (2).  pp. 193-204.