eprintid: 1564
rev_number: 13
eprint_status: archive
userid: 2
dir: disk0/00/00/15/64
datestamp: 2015-03-02 07:38:20
lastmod: 2015-04-27 12:26:07
status_changed: 2015-04-27 12:11:08
type: monograph
metadata_visibility: show
creators_name: Spottiswoode, Steve
corp_creators: 24 Mail Str, Florida Park 1709. Johannesburg, South Africa
title: IS MINE EARTHQUAKE PREDICTION POSSIBLE?
ispublished: pub
subjects: SS
divisions: EPOS-P
full_text_status: none
monograph_type: discussion_paper
abstract: Short-term prediction of large earthquakes and mine seismic events has been an elusive goal for many years.  Some South African deep-level gold mines use a system of hazard estimation that varies from day to day and that is meant to provide warnings of increased likelihood of impending large events.  In essence, this is an attempt at predicting the incidence of large events.  In this study, I look for any consistent changes in the rate or type of seismicity before large events (Magnitude M greater than 2.5) in two mines.  The only consistent change is a small increase in the rate of seismicity soon before large events.  The same increased rate is also observed before small events (M between 0.0 and 1.0).  As small events are numerous and rarely pose significant hazard, consistent short-term prediction of large events does not seem to be possible.  I therefore recommend that the daily issuing of seismic hazard assessments be scrapped.
date_type: published
publisher: SPOTTISWOODE STEVE
refereed: TRUE
access_IS-EPOS: limited
citation:   Spottiswoode, Steve   IS MINE EARTHQUAKE PREDICTION POSSIBLE?  Discussion Paper. SPOTTISWOODE STEVE.