eprintid: 1529
rev_number: 12
eprint_status: archive
userid: 2
dir: disk0/00/00/15/29
datestamp: 2015-02-20 11:59:58
lastmod: 2017-02-08 12:21:44
status_changed: 2015-04-27 12:11:04
type: article
metadata_visibility: show
creators_name: Woo, Gordon
corp_creators: University College London, Gower Street, London WC1E 6BT
title: Kernel Estimation  Methods  for Seismic  Hazard Area Source Modeling
ispublished: pub
subjects: SS
divisions: EPOS-P
full_text_status: none
abstract: In  probabilistic  seismic  hazard  analysis,  the  representation  of  seismic sources  by  area  zones  is  a  standard  means  of data  reduction.  However,  where  the association  between  seismicity  and  geology  is complex,  as  it  is  in  many  tectonic regimes,  the  construction  of  zone  geometry  may  become contentiously  subjective, and  ambiguities may end up  being  resolved through appeal  to  the  nonscientific rule of  conservatism  or  pragmatism.  Although  consideration  of  alternative  zonations within a logic-tree framework provides  a channel for some of the uncertainty, it does not  address  the  fundamental validity of the  zonation  procedure  itself.  In  particular, neither the minimal assumption of uniform seismicity within a zone nor the Euclidean geometry of a  zone  accord  with the fractal spatial distribution of seismicity, and the magnitude  insensitivity  of  zonation  ignores  the  spatial  extent  and correlations  of different-sized  earthquakes.  An  alternative  procedure  for  area  source  modeling avoids Euclidean zones  and is based  statistically on kernel estimation of the activity rate  density  inferred  from  the  regional  earthquake  catalog.  The  form  of  kernel  is 
governed by the concepts  of fractal geometry and self-organized criticality, with the bandwidth  scaling  according  to  magnitude.  In  contrast  with  zonal  models  for  intraplate regions, the kernel estimation methodology makes provision for moderate earthquakes  to  cluster  spatially, while larger events  may migrate  over  sizeable  distances.
date: 1996-04
date_type: published
publication: Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America
volume: 86
number: 2
publisher: Seismological Society of America
pagerange: 353-362
refereed: TRUE
issn: 0037-1106
access_IS-EPOS: limited
owner: Publisher
citation:   Woo, Gordon  (1996) Kernel Estimation Methods for Seismic Hazard Area Source Modeling.  Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America, 86 (2).  pp. 353-362.