eprintid: 1517 rev_number: 15 eprint_status: archive userid: 2 dir: disk0/00/00/15/17 datestamp: 2015-02-16 08:36:31 lastmod: 2017-02-08 12:21:36 status_changed: 2015-04-27 12:11:02 type: article metadata_visibility: show creators_name: Kijko, Andrzej creators_name: Graham, Gerhard creators_id: kijko@geoscience.org creators_id: gerhardg@geoscience.org title: Parametric-historic Procedure for Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Analysis Part I: Estimation of Maximum Regional Magnitude m max ispublished: pub subjects: MP2_2 subjects: MP3_1 divisions: EPOS-P full_text_status: none keywords: Seismic hazard, maximum regional earthquake magnitude mmax abstract: A new methodology for probabilistic seismic hazard analysis (PSHA) is described. The approach combines the best features of the "deductive" (Cornell, 1968) and "historical" (Veneziano et al., 1984) procedures. It can be called a "parametric-historic" procedure. The maximum regional magnitude m max is of paramount importance in this approach and Part I of our work presents some of the statistical techniques which can be used for its evaluation. The work is an analysis of parametric procedures for the evaluation of m max, when the form of the magnitude distribution is specified. For each of the formulae given there are notes on its origin, assumptions made of its derivation, and some comparisons. The statistical concepts of bias and variance are considered for each formula, and appropriate expressions for these are also given. Also, following Knopoff and Kagan (1977), we shall demonstrate why there must be a finite upper bound to the largest seismic event if the Gutenberg-Richter frequency-magnitude relation is accepted. date: 1998 date_type: published publication: Pure and Applied Geophysics volume: 152 number: 3 publisher: Springer Verlag pagerange: 413-442 id_number: doi:10.1007/s000240050161 refereed: TRUE issn: 0033-4553 official_url: http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s000240050161 access_IS-EPOS: limited owner: Publisher citation: Kijko, Andrzej and Graham, Gerhard (1998) Parametric-historic Procedure for Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Analysis Part I: Estimation of Maximum Regional Magnitude m max. Pure and Applied Geophysics, 152 (3). pp. 413-442. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s000240050161