eprintid: 1498
rev_number: 16
eprint_status: archive
userid: 2
dir: disk0/00/00/14/98
datestamp: 2015-02-25 09:08:47
lastmod: 2017-09-20 09:06:27
status_changed: 2015-04-27 12:11:00
type: article
metadata_visibility: show
creators_name: Parsons, Tom
creators_name: Toda, Shinji
creators_name: Stein, Ross
creators_name: Barka, Aykut
creators_name: Dieterich, James H.
creators_id: tparsons@usgs.gov
creators_id: 
creators_id: 
creators_id: 
creators_id: 
corp_creators: U.S.GeologicalSurvey,MenloPark,CA94025,USA
corp_creators: Earthquake Research Institute, University of Tokyo, Tokyo, 113-0032 Japan
corp_creators: U.S.GeologicalSurvey,MenloPark,CA94025,USA
corp_creators: Istanbul Technical University, Istanbul, 80626 Turkey
corp_creators: U.S.GeologicalSurvey,MenloPark,CA94025,USA
title: Heightened Odds of Large Earthquakes Near Istanbul: An Interaction-Based Probability Calculation
ispublished: pub
subjects: SS
divisions: EPOS-P
full_text_status: none
abstract: We calculate the probability of strong shaking in Istanbul, an urban center of 10 million people, from the description of earthquakes on the North Anatolian fault system in the Marmara Sea during the past 500 years and test the resulting catalog against the frequency of damage in Istanbul during the preceding millennium. Departing from current practice, we include the time-dependent effect of stress transferred by the 1999 moment magnitude M = 7.4 Izmit earthquake to faults nearer to Istanbul. We find a 62 ± 15% probability (one standard deviation) of strong shaking during the next 30 years and 32 ± 12% during the next decade.
date: 2000-04-28
date_type: published
publication: Science
volume: 288
number: 5466
publisher: American Association for the Advancement of Science
pagerange: 661-665
id_number: doi:10.1126/science.288.5466.661
refereed: TRUE
issn: 0036-8075
official_url: http://dx.doi.org/10.1126/science.288.5466.661
access_IS-EPOS: limited
owner: Publisher
citation:   Parsons, Tom and Toda, Shinji and Stein, Ross and Barka, Aykut and Dieterich, James H.  (2000) Heightened Odds of Large Earthquakes Near Istanbul: An Interaction-Based Probability Calculation.  Science, 288 (5466).  pp. 661-665. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1126/science.288.5466.661 <https://doi.org/10.1126/science.288.5466.661>