TY  - JOUR
ID  - epos1498
UR  - http://dx.doi.org/10.1126/science.288.5466.661
IS  - 5466
A1  - Parsons, Tom
A1  - Toda, Shinji
A1  - Stein, Ross
A1  - Barka, Aykut
A1  - Dieterich, James H.
Y1  - 2000/04/28/
N2  - We calculate the probability of strong shaking in Istanbul, an urban center of 10 million people, from the description of earthquakes on the North Anatolian fault system in the Marmara Sea during the past 500 years and test the resulting catalog against the frequency of damage in Istanbul during the preceding millennium. Departing from current practice, we include the time-dependent effect of stress transferred by the 1999 moment magnitude M = 7.4 Izmit earthquake to faults nearer to Istanbul. We find a 62 ± 15% probability (one standard deviation) of strong shaking during the next 30 years and 32 ± 12% during the next decade.
PB  - American Association for the Advancement of Science
JF  - Science
VL  - 288
SN  - 0036-8075
TI  - Heightened Odds of Large Earthquakes Near Istanbul: An Interaction-Based Probability Calculation
SP  - 661
AV  - none
EP  - 665
ER  -