eprintid: 1488
rev_number: 13
eprint_status: archive
userid: 2
dir: disk0/00/00/14/88
datestamp: 2015-02-20 11:30:51
lastmod: 2017-02-08 12:21:39
status_changed: 2015-04-27 12:10:59
type: article
metadata_visibility: show
creators_name: Molina, Sergio
creators_name: Lindholm, Conrad
creators_name: Bungum, Hilmar
creators_id: sergio.molina@ua.es
creators_id: 
creators_id: 
corp_creators: Dpto. Ciencias de la Tierra y del Medio Ambiente. Facultad de Ciencias. Universidad de Alicante. 03690 Alicante (SPAIN)
corp_creators: NORSAR, P.O. Box 51, 2027 Kjeller, Norway
corp_creators: NORSAR, P.O. Box 51, 2027 Kjeller, Norway
title: Probabilistic seismic hazard analysis: zoning free versus zoning methodology
ispublished: pub
subjects: SS
divisions: EPOS-P
full_text_status: none
abstract: A Kernel method for probabilistic seismic hazard computation, without definition of
source zones, has been compared with the classical Cornell-McGuire method. The Kernel
method used here amalgamates statistical consistency with an empirical knowledge basis
(earthquake catalogue), and incorporates parameters describing the structured character of
the earthquake distribution. Statistical Kernel techniques are used to compute probability
density functions for the size and location of future events, and linear trends based on geo-
logical or seismic information, and uncertainties in magnitude and epicentral location for
each earthquake are incorporated in the statistical estimates. The Kernel method has been
explored in terms of the available parameterisation, particularly aimed to understand how
tectonic knowledge of a region and expert judgement can be used in reasonable and statis-
tically significant ways. The two computation methods were compared with synthetic data
and with seismicity catalogues (from Norway and Spain). When using real data it was
found that the Kernel method generally yields lower hazard results than the Cornell-
McGuire approach. More specifically it is found that the difference between the two methods increase with increasing deviation in the catalogue from the self similarity assumption implied by the Gutenberg-Richter relationship. The Kernel method has features that circumvent some of the simplification drawbacks of the conventional zoning methods, and it has potentials to develop into a feasible alternative for hazard computation.
date: 2001-06-09
publication: BOLLETTINO DI GEOFISICA TEORICA ED APPLICATA
volume: 42
number: 1-2
pagerange: 19-39
refereed: TRUE
issn: 0006-6729
access_IS-EPOS: limited
owner: Publisher
citation:   Molina, Sergio and Lindholm, Conrad and Bungum, Hilmar  (2001) Probabilistic seismic hazard analysis: zoning free versus zoning methodology.  BOLLETTINO DI GEOFISICA TEORICA ED APPLICATA, 42 (1-2).  pp. 19-39.