%0 Journal Article
%@ 0033-4553
%A Kijko, Andrzej
%A Council for Geoscience, South Africa,
%D 2004
%F epos:1446
%I Springer Verlag
%J Pure and Applied Geophysics
%K Seismic hazard, maximum earthquake magnitude m max
%N 8
%P 1655-1681
%T Estimation of the Maximum Earthquake Magnitude, m max
%U https://episodesplatform.eu/eprints/1446/
%V 161
%X This paper provides a generic equation for the evaluation of the maximum earthquake magnitude m max for a given seismogenic zone or entire region. The equation is capable of generating solutions in different forms, depending on the assumptions of the statistical distribution model and/or the available information regarding past seismicity. It includes the cases (i) when earthquake magnitudes are distributed according to the doubly-truncated Gutenberg-Richter relation, (ii) when the empirical magnitude distribution deviates moderately from the Gutenberg-Richter relation, and (iii) when no specific type of magnitude distribution is assumed. Both synthetic, Monte-Carlo simulated seismic event catalogues, and actual data from Southern California, are used to demonstrate the procedures given for the evaluation of m max. The three estimates of m max for Southern California, obtained by the three procedures mentioned above, are respectively: 8.32 ± 0.43, 8.31 ± 0.42 and 8.34 ± 0.45. All three estimates are nearly identical, although higher than the value 7.99 obtained by Field et al. (1999). In general, since the third procedure is non-parametric and does not require specification of the functional form of the magnitude distribution, its estimate of the maximum earthquake magnitude m max is considered more reliable than the other two which are based on the Gutenberg-Richter relation.