TY  - JOUR
ID  - epos1439
UR  - http://dx.doi.org/10.1029/2003JB002437
IS  - B4
A1  - Hardebeck, Jeanne L.
Y1  - 2004/04/22/
N2  - Stress triggering and fault interaction concepts are beginning to be incorporated into
quantitative earthquake probability estimates. However, the current methods are limited
in their range of compatible earthquake nucleation models. I introduce a new general
method for translating stress changes into earthquake probability changes, which can
potentially be used with any physical fault model. Given the large uncertainties in
earthquake probability calculations, it is unclear whether the small probability changes
resulting from stress transfer are significant and meaningful for the purposes of seismic
hazard assessment. I present a case study of the effect of the 1992 M7.3 Landers,
California, earthquake on the probability of a major earthquake on the San Andreas Fault
in southern California. This is a large event in a well-studied region, which should
maximize the probability change signal and minimize the uncertainty. Even for this
scenario, the earthquake probability change for a 30 year period is not significant with
respect to the initial uncertainty in the earthquake probability. This example, comparisons
with other studies, and exploration of parameter space imply that the probability
changes due to stress triggering are significant only for time intervals which are short
compared to the repeat time of the target fault. Therefore stress change calculations will be
useful in long-term seismic hazard assessment only for low slip-rate faults. Otherwise,
stress triggering calculations are best utilized in the short-term immediately following a
major earthquake.
PB  - American Geophysical Union
JF  - Journal of Geophysical Research
VL  - 109
SN  - 0148-0227
TI  - Stress triggering and earthquake probability estimates
SP  - 1
AV  - none
EP  - 16
ER  -