@article{epos1437,
          volume = {109},
          number = {B5},
           month = {May},
          author = {Tom Parsons},
           title = {Recalculated probability ofM? 7 earthquakes beneath the Sea of Marmara, Turkey},
       publisher = {American Geophysical Union},
            year = {2004},
         journal = {Journal of Geophysical Research},
           pages = {1--21},
             url = {https://episodesplatform.eu/eprints/1437/},
        abstract = {New earthquake probability calculations are made for the Sea of Marmara region and the city of Istanbul, providing a revised forecast and an evaluation of time-dependent interaction techniques. Calculations incorporate newly obtained bathymetric images of the North Anatolian fault beneath the Sea of Marmara [Le Pichon et al., 2001; Armijo et al., 2002]. Newly interpreted fault segmentation enables an improved regional A.D. 1500?2000 earthquake catalog and interevent model, which form the basis for time-dependent probability estimates. Calculations presented here also employ detailed models of coseismic and postseismic slip associated with the 17 August 1999 M = 7.4 Izmit earthquake to investigate effects of stress transfer on seismic hazard. Probability changes caused by the 1999 shock depend on Marmara Sea fault-stressing rates, which are calculated with a new finite element model. The combined 2004?2034 regional Poisson probability of M ? 7 earthquakes is {$\sim$}38\%, the regional time-dependent probability is 44 {$\pm$} 18\%, and incorporation of stress transfer raises it to 53 {$\pm$} 18\%. The most important effect of adding time dependence and stress transfer to the calculations is an increase in the 30 year probability of a M ? 7 earthquake affecting Istanbul. The 30 year Poisson probability at Istanbul is 21\%, and the addition of time dependence and stress transfer raises it to 41 {$\pm$} 14\%. The ranges given on probability values are sensitivities of the calculations to input parameters determined by Monte Carlo analysis; 1000 calculations are made using parameters drawn at random from distributions. Sensitivities are large relative to mean probability values and enhancements caused by stress transfer, reflecting a poor understanding of large-earthquake aperiodicity.}
}