eprintid: 1369
rev_number: 15
eprint_status: archive
userid: 2
dir: disk0/00/00/13/69
datestamp: 2015-02-17 08:18:38
lastmod: 2017-02-08 12:21:37
status_changed: 2015-04-27 12:10:46
type: article
metadata_visibility: show
creators_name: Klugel, Jens-Uwe
creators_id: jkluegel@kkg.ch.
corp_creators: NPP Goesgen Daeniken, Switzerland
title: Error inflation in Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Analysis
ispublished: pub
subjects: MP3_3
divisions: EPOS-P
full_text_status: none
keywords: Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Analysis; Error; Ground motion prediction
abstract: Based on a consistent interpretation of earthquake occurrence as a stochastic process I demonstrate that the mathematical model of Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Analysis (PSHA) as it is in use today is inaccurate and leads to systematic errors in the calculation process. These mathematical errors may be regarded as an important contributor to the unrealistic results obtained by traditional PSHA for low probabilities of exceedance in recent projects.
date: 2007-01
date_type: published
publication: Engineering Geology
volume: 90
number: 3-4
publisher: Elsevier Science
pagerange: 186-192
id_number: doi:10.1016/j.enggeo.2007.01.003
refereed: TRUE
issn: 0013-7952
official_url: http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.enggeo.2007.01.003
access_IS-EPOS: limited
owner: Publisher
citation:   Klugel, Jens-Uwe  (2007) Error inflation in Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Analysis.  Engineering Geology, 90 (3-4).  pp. 186-192. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.enggeo.2007.01.003 <https://doi.org/10.1016/j.enggeo.2007.01.003>