eprintid: 1368 rev_number: 12 eprint_status: archive userid: 2 dir: disk0/00/00/13/68 datestamp: 2015-02-25 09:43:45 lastmod: 2017-02-08 12:21:42 status_changed: 2015-04-27 12:10:46 type: article metadata_visibility: show creators_name: Shaw, Bruce E. creators_name: Dieterich, James H. corp_creators: Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory, Columbia University, Palisades, New York, USA. corp_creators: Department of Earth Science, University of California, Riverside, California, USA title: Probabilities for jumping fault segment stepovers ispublished: pub subjects: SS divisions: EPOS-P full_text_status: none abstract: Seismic hazard analysis relies heavily on the segmentation of faults. The ability of ruptures to break multiple segments has a big impact on estimated hazard. Current practice for estimating multiple segment breakage relies on panels of experts voting on their opinions for each case. Here, we explore the probability of elastodynamic ruptures jumping segment stepovers in numerical simulations of segmented fault systems. We find a simple functional form for the probability of jumping a segment stepover as a function of stepover distance: an exponential falloff with distance. We suggest this simple parameterization of jumping probabilities, combined with sparse observational data to fix the lengthscale parameter, as a new approach to estimating multisegment earthquake hazard. date: 2007-01-11 date_type: published publication: Geophysical Research Letters volume: 34 number: 1 publisher: American Geophysical Union pagerange: 1-5 id_number: doi:10.1029/2006GL027980 refereed: TRUE issn: 0094-8276 official_url: http://dx.doi.org/10.1029/2006GL027980 access_IS-EPOS: limited owner: Publisher citation: Shaw, Bruce E. and Dieterich, James H. (2007) Probabilities for jumping fault segment stepovers. Geophysical Research Letters, 34 (1). pp. 1-5. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1029/2006GL027980