eprintid: 1356 rev_number: 14 eprint_status: archive userid: 2 dir: disk0/00/00/13/56 datestamp: 2015-02-24 09:01:39 lastmod: 2017-02-08 12:21:40 status_changed: 2015-04-27 12:10:45 type: article metadata_visibility: show creators_name: Pagani, Marco creators_name: Marcellini, Alberto creators_id: marco.pagani@idpa.cnr.it creators_id: alberto.marcellini@idpa.cnr.it corp_creators: Istituto per la Dinamica dei Processi Ambientali Consiglio Nazionale delle Ricerche c/o POINT via Pasubio, 5 – I-24044 Dalmine (BG), Italy corp_creators: Istituto per la Dinamica dei Processi Ambientali Consiglio Nazionale delle Ricerche via M. Bianco, 9 – I-20133 Milano, Italy title: Seismic-Hazard Disaggregation: A Fully Probabilistic Methodology ispublished: pub subjects: MP3_3 divisions: EPOS-P full_text_status: none abstract: This article presents a seismic-hazard disaggregation methodology based on the probabilistic approach introduced by Mortgat and Shah (1979). The disaggregation technique we propose computes the probability of exceedence of a disaggregated ground motion, gmd, characterized by a probability of at least one exceedence, P (GM > gmd), in a time interval, t, for given values of magnitude, m, distance, r, a measure of the deviation of the ground motion from its predicted value, e, and the number of occurrences, n. The original points of the procedure presented here are: (1) disaggregation is made in terms of probabilities with significant advantages over the most common approach based on occurrences, and (2) the method proposed shows whether the contributions to the disaggregated hazard value are given by single or multiple earthquake occurrences. To test the approach three source models have been considered: a single point source, gridded seismicity, and a vertical fault. The three examples show the basic capabilities of the procedure and demonstrate some interesting features. date: 2007-10 date_type: published publication: Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America volume: 97 number: 5 publisher: Seismological Society of America pagerange: 1688-1701 id_number: doi:10.1785/0120060126 refereed: TRUE issn: 0037-1106 official_url: http://dx.doi.org/10.1785/0120060126 access_IS-EPOS: limited owner: Publisher citation: Pagani, Marco and Marcellini, Alberto (2007) Seismic-Hazard Disaggregation: A Fully Probabilistic Methodology. Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America, 97 (5). pp. 1688-1701. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1785/0120060126