TY  - JOUR
ID  - epos1356
UR  - http://dx.doi.org/10.1785/0120060126
IS  - 5
A1  - Pagani, Marco
A1  - Marcellini, Alberto
Y1  - 2007/10//
N2  - This article presents a seismic-hazard disaggregation methodology
based on the probabilistic approach introduced by Mortgat and Shah (1979). The
disaggregation technique we propose computes the probability of exceedence of a
disaggregated ground motion, gmd, characterized by a probability of at least one
exceedence, P (GM > gmd), in a time interval, t, for given values of magnitude, m,
distance, r, a measure of the deviation of the ground motion from its predicted value,
e, and the number of occurrences, n.
The original points of the procedure presented here are: (1) disaggregation is made
in terms of probabilities with signi?cant advantages over the most common approach
based on occurrences, and (2) the method proposed shows whether the contributions
to the disaggregated hazard value are given by single or multiple earthquake occurrences. To test the approach three source models have been considered: a single point
source, gridded seismicity, and a vertical fault. The three examples show the basic
capabilities of the procedure and demonstrate some interesting features.
PB  - Seismological Society of America
JF  - Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America
VL  - 97
SN  - 0037-1106
TI  - Seismic-Hazard Disaggregation: A Fully Probabilistic Methodology
SP  - 1688
AV  - none
EP  - 1701
ER  -