eprintid: 1242
rev_number: 16
eprint_status: archive
userid: 2
dir: disk0/00/00/12/42
datestamp: 2015-02-16 08:21:41
lastmod: 2017-02-08 12:21:35
status_changed: 2015-04-27 12:10:32
type: article
metadata_visibility: show
creators_name: Hallo, Miroslav
creators_name: Oprsal, Ivo
creators_name: Eisner, Leo
creators_name: Ali, Mohammed Y.
creators_id: hallo.miroslav@gmail.com
creators_id: 
creators_id: 
creators_id: 
corp_creators: Seismik Ltd., Czech Republic
corp_creators: Seismik Ltd., Czech Republic
corp_creators: Academy of Sciences, Institute of Rock Structure and Mechanics, Czech Republic
corp_creators: The Petroleum Institute, United Arab Emirates
title: Prediction of magnitude of the largest potentially induced seismic event
ispublished: pub
subjects: MP2
subjects: SHU
divisions: EPOS-P
full_text_status: none
keywords: Magnitude, Seismic moment, b value, Induced events,        Microseismicity, Hydraulic fracturing, Enhanced geothermal systems
abstract: We propose a method for determining the possible magnitude of a potentially largest induced seismic event derived from the Gutenberg–Richter law and an estimate of total released seismic moment. We emphasize that the presented relationship is valid for induced (not triggered) seismicity, as the total seismic moment of triggered seismicity is not bound by the injection. The ratio of the moment released by the largest event and weaker events is determined by the constants a and b of the Gutenberg–Richter law. We show that for a total released seismic moment, it is possible to estimate number of events greater than a given magnitude. We determine the formula for the moment magnitude of a probable largest seismic event with one occurrence within the recurrence interval (given by one volumetric change caused by mining or injecting). Finally, we compare theoretical and measured values of the moment magnitudes of the largest induced seismic events for selected geothermal and hydraulic fracturing projects.
date: 2014-01
date_type: published
publication: Journal of Seismology
volume: 18
number: 3
publisher: Springer Verlag
pagerange: 421-431
id_number: doi:10.1007/s10950-014-9417-4
refereed: TRUE
issn: 1383-4649
official_url: http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s10950-014-9417-4
access_IS-EPOS: limited
owner: Publisher
citation:   Hallo, Miroslav and Oprsal, Ivo and Eisner, Leo and Ali, Mohammed Y.  (2014) Prediction of magnitude of the largest potentially induced seismic event.  Journal of Seismology, 18 (3).  pp. 421-431. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s10950-014-9417-4 <https://doi.org/10.1007/s10950-014-9417-4>