Evolution of the stress field in the northern Aegean Sea (Greece)

Papadimitriou, Eleftheria E. and Sykes, Lynn R. (2001) Evolution of the stress field in the northern Aegean Sea (Greece). Geophysical Journal International, 146 (3). pp. 747-759. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1046/j.0956-540x.2001.01486.x

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Official URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1046/j.0956-540x.2001.01486.x

Abstract

The evolution of the stress field in the area of the northern Aegean Sea during the 20thcentury has been studied. The area is dominated by dextral strike-slip faulting and is characterized by frequent strong earthquakes. Coulomb stress changes (ΔCFF) we recalculated assuming that earthquakes can be modeled as static dislocations in an elastic half-space, and taking into account both the coseismic slip in large (M≥7.0) earth quakes and the slow tectonic stress build-up along the major fault segments. The stress change calculations were performed for strike-slip faults of strike, dip, and rake appropriate to the large events. We evaluate whether these stress changes brought a given large earthquake closer to, or farther from, failure. It was found that each of the large events occurred in regions of increased calculated Coulomb stress. Moreover, the majority of smaller events for which reliable fault-plane solutions are available were also located in areas of positive ΔCFF. By extending the calculations to 2020, and assuming that no additional large (M≥7.0) earthquake occurs between 1999 and 2020, possible sites of future large earthquakes are identified.

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Item Type: Article
Subjects: Methodology > Method and procesing
Project: IS-EPOS project