Kijko, Andrzej (2002) Statistical Estimation Of Maximum Regional Earthquake Magnitude mmax. In: 12th EuropeanConference on Earthquake Engineering, 09.09.2002-13.09.2002, London, UK.
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Abstract
This paper provides a generic equation for the evaluation of the maximum regional earthquake magnitude mmax. The equation is capable of generating solutions in different forms, depending on the assumptions of the statistical distribution model and/or the available information about past seismicity. It includes the cases (i) when earthquake magnitudes are distributed according to the doubly-truncated Gutenberg-Richter relation, (ii) when the empirical magnitude distribution deviates moderately from the Gutenberg-Richter model, and (iii) when no specific model of the magnitude distribution is assumed. Both synthetic, Monte-Carlo simulated seismic event catalogues, and actual data from Southern California, are used to demonstrate the procedures given for the evaluation of mmax. The three estimates of mmax for Southern California, obtained by the three procedures mentioned above are respectively: 8.32±0.43, 8.31±0.42 and 8.34±0.45. Since the third procedure applied is non-parametric and does not require specification of the functional form of the magnitude distribution, its estimate of the maximum magnitude is considered more reliable than the other two, which are based on the Gutenberg-Richter model.
| Item Type: | Conference or Workshop Item (Paper) |
|---|---|
| Uncontrolled Keywords: | maximum earthquake magnitude mmax, statistical estimation |
| Subjects: | Methodology > Method and procesing > Collective properties of seismicity > Source size distribution Methodology > Method and procesing > Probabilistic seismic hazard analysis - stationary > Source effect |
| Project: | IS-EPOS project |