Wang, Qiuliang and Yao, Yunsheng and Xia, Jinwu and Zhu, Wenjing and Wang, Dun and Li, Jinggang and Zhang, Lifen (2008) Study on methods of reservoir induced seismicity prediction of the three gorges reservoir. In: The 14th World Conference on Earthquake Engineering, October 12-17, 2008, Beijing, China.
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Abstract
Based on the analysis of seismogeological background, the Three Gorges Reservoir area is divided into 31 units according to different combined conditions of induced earthquake, together with 8 influencing factors, to give the prediction on probability and magnitude of RIS by adopting statistical prediction model, fuzzy mathematics and gray system model as well as artificial neural network model respectively. The results show as follows: in 31 units, the slight differences exist in results among three predictive methods, especially distinction between mathematics statistics models and artificial neural network model, which is also quite coincident with past macroscopical analogical prediction. The results are not only in accord with the past researchers’ basically, but also confirm with each other better: (1)from dam site to Miaohe segment, due to its geologic background, superficial fracture dislocation type of RIS may be triggered mainly, and the maximum (ultimate) magnitude will not exceed 3.0; (2) it is possible to trigger 4.5-6.0 earthquake in three places, including limestone area of southern Badong, near reservoir segment of Longchuanhe limestone area and far from reservoir segment of Gaoqiao Fracture limestone area; (3) it’s quite likely that the certain activity of Gaoqiao Fracture trigger tectonic reservoir induced earthquake.
| Item Type: | Conference or Workshop Item (Paper) |
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| Uncontrolled Keywords: | RIS; mathematic model, influencing factors, magnitude, prediction, the Three Gorges Reservoir |
| Subjects: | Region > China > Hubei Province Inducing technology > Reservoir impoundment Methodology > Method and procesing |
| Project: | IS-EPOS project |