IS MINE EARTHQUAKE PREDICTION POSSIBLE?

Spottiswoode, Steve IS MINE EARTHQUAKE PREDICTION POSSIBLE? Discussion Paper. SPOTTISWOODE STEVE.

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Abstract

Short-term prediction of large earthquakes and mine seismic events has been an elusive goal for many years. Some South African deep-level gold mines use a system of hazard estimation that varies from day to day and that is meant to provide warnings of increased likelihood of impending large events. In essence, this is an attempt at predicting the incidence of large events. In this study, I look for any consistent changes in the rate or type of seismicity before large events (Magnitude M greater than 2.5) in two mines. The only consistent change is a small increase in the rate of seismicity soon before large events. The same increased rate is also observed before small events (M between 0.0 and 1.0). As small events are numerous and rarely pose significant hazard, consistent short-term prediction of large events does not seem to be possible. I therefore recommend that the daily issuing of seismic hazard assessments be scrapped.

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Item Type:	Reports (Discussion Paper)
Subjects:	Methodology > Method and procesing
Project:	IS-EPOS project