A modified form of the first Gumbel distribution: model for the occurrence of large earthquakes. Part II - Estimation of parameters

Kijko, Andrzej (1983) A modified form of the first Gumbel distribution: model for the occurrence of large earthquakes. Part II - Estimation of parameters. Acta Geophysica Polonica, 31 (2). pp. 147-159.

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Abstract

In the first part of this paper (Kijko, 1982), the following cumulative distribution function for magnitudes of the largest earthquakes in a certain interval of time, was proposed: G(x)=exp[-λ((A2-A(x))/(A2-A1))] for Mmin<=x<=Mmax and G(x)=1 for x>Mmax, where A(x)=exp (-βx), A1=exp(-βMmin), and A2=exp(-βMmax). Mmin is the treshold magnitude, Mmax is the maximum regional value, and the parameters β, λ and Mmax have been determined. In this paper the formulas for the parameters β, λ and Mmax are derived following the maximum likelihood and moments principles. As an example, the proposed distribution and formulas are applied to five seismic regions.

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Item Type: Article
Subjects: Methodology > Method and procesing > Collective properties of seismicity > Source size distribution
Methodology > Method and procesing > Probabilistic seismic hazard analysis - stationary > Source effect
Project: IS-EPOS project