Klugel, Jens-Uwe (2007) Error inflation in Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Analysis. Engineering Geology, 90 (3-4). pp. 186-192. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.enggeo.2007.01.003
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Official URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.enggeo.2007.01.003
Abstract
Based on a consistent interpretation of earthquake occurrence as a stochastic process I demonstrate that the mathematical model of Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Analysis (PSHA) as it is in use today is inaccurate and leads to systematic errors in the calculation process. These mathematical errors may be regarded as an important contributor to the unrealistic results obtained by traditional PSHA for low probabilities of exceedance in recent projects.
| Item Type: | Article |
|---|---|
| Uncontrolled Keywords: | Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Analysis; Error; Ground motion prediction |
| Subjects: | Methodology > Method and procesing > Probabilistic seismic hazard analysis - stationary > Aggregated solution |
| Project: | IS-EPOS project |