Kijko, Andrzej (2009) Flaw in the EPRI Procedure for the Maximum Earthquake Magnitude Estimation and its Correction. Documentation. None, Africa. (Unpublished)
Full text not available from this repository.Abstract
It has been shown that the EPRI, Bayesian procedure for the estimation of the regional, maximum possible earthquake magnitude m_max , (Cornell, 1994; EPRI NP- 4726), provides value of m^_max, which is biased and systematically underestimated. The value of underestimation can be as big as 0.5 unit of magnitude. The bias is caused by the fact that one of the components of the posterior likelihood function is the sample likelihood function, for which, the range of observations (earthquake magnitudes) depends on the unknown parameter m max . Such dependence violates the rule of optimal properties of the maximum likelihood estimators: so the built likelihood function has its maximum at the maximum observed earthquake magnitude obs_m_max, not at required maximum possible magnitude m max. A possible correction to the current EPRI procedure is also presented.
| Item Type: | Reports (Documentation) |
|---|---|
| Subjects: | Methodology > Method and procesing > Collective properties of seismicity > Source size distribution Methodology > Method and procesing > Probabilistic seismic hazard analysis - stationary > Source effect |
| Project: | IS-EPOS project |