Kijko, Andrzej (1982) A modified form of the first Gumbel distribution: model for the occurrence of large earthquakes. Part. I. Derivation of distribution. Acta Geophysica Polonica, XXX (4).
Full text not available from this repository.Abstract
The followin cumulative distribution G(x)={(exp[-λ((A_2-A(x))/(A_2-A_1 ))]@1, x>M_max )┤,M_min≤x〖≤M〗_max Is proposed for the magnitudes of largest earthquake where A(x)=exp(-βx), A_1= exp(-βM_min), and A_2= exp(-βM_max). M_min is the threshold magnitude value and M_max is the maximum regional value. M_max, β and λ are the parameters to be determined. When no upper bound of magnitude is assumed (M_max→∞), the new proposed distribution take the form of the well-known first Gumbel distribution. The distribution is obtained under the following assumptions: the annual number of earthquake is a Poisson random variable with the mean λ, and the earthquake magnitude is random variable distributed according to a double truncated exponential distribution. The proposed distribution provides an estimation of the probability of occurrence of strong earthquakes significantly more realistic than the classical first Gumbel distribution. As an example, the results of calculations for earthquakes felt in Norway during the period 1899-1979 are given.
| Item Type: | Article |
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| Subjects: | Methodology > Method and procesing > Collective properties of seismicity > Source size distribution Methodology > Method and procesing > Probabilistic seismic hazard analysis - stationary > Source effect |
| Project: | IS-EPOS project |